The context of those arguments is almost metaphysical. When you ask 'Is it more likely my consciousness is a local random fluctuation of some large system or the result of a one-off process?' you have to imagine you may be part of some abstract system that satisfies our notion of time and has rich enough dynamics to comport entropy and intelligence, but this universe could look nothing like ours, and you have to notice you are abusing probability, which is nothing more than a model of uncertainty and not an Oracle of reality.

But if you're willing to make some assumptions, Feynman's evidence for the latter seems valid.