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> you obviously know at the smallest level things happen by random probability

We don't actually know this. It is just what we observe that fits our map so far.



If you don't believe in God, actually you NEED to buy this, or buy into some other methaphysical eternalism that is as hard to prove as truly random events. The universe either started randomly or it was created, and the existence either existed eternally or it was created (both prospects are also problematic in some level, but at least it is something better than thinking you can not have a position on this and also assume that determinism is trivially true).




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